PLAYOFFS

Who makes it, who gets the bye, who wins it: every simulated season is played out and seeded with the real rules, and the bracket is played to a champion.

TeamRecE[W]PlayoffsDivisionByeTitleSeed 1→7
San Francisco 49ers49ersNFC W5–013.299%85%63%20%
Jacksonville JaguarsJaguarsAFC S4–112.195%89%27%12%
Buffalo BillsBillsAFC E4–112.195%60%24%11%
Minnesota VikingsVikingsNFC N5–011.893%68%23%7%
Kansas City ChiefsChiefsAFC W4–011.491%62%17%7%
New England PatriotsPatriotsAFC E3–211.089%40%10%8%
Baltimore RavensRavensAFC N4–111.182%56%11%5%
Denver BroncosBroncosAFC W4–210.881%35%8%4%
Seattle SeahawksSeahawksNFC W3–310.272%8%4%9%
Los Angeles RamsRamsNFC W2–310.070%7%3%7%
Cincinnati BengalsBengalsAFC N3–210.266%29%3%2%
Detroit LionsLionsNFC N3–29.961%19%3%3%
New York GiantsGiantsNFC E3–1–18.746%40%1%1%
Chicago BearsBearsNFC N3–29.244%7%1%1%
Carolina PanthersPanthersNFC S2–27.742%40%<1%1%
Philadelphia EaglesEaglesNFC E2–38.440%35%1%1%
Atlanta FalconsFalconsNFC S2–37.739%36%<1%1%
Green Bay PackersPackersNFC N3–28.838%6%1%1%
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelersAFC N3–28.936%12%1%1%
Dallas CowboysCowboysNFC E2–37.826%21%<1%1%
Houston TexansTexansAFC S1–47.918%5%<1%1%
Indianapolis ColtsColtsAFC S2–38.017%6%<1%<1%
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneersNFC S1–46.417%16%<1%<1%
Las Vegas RaidersRaidersAFC W3–27.917%3%<1%<1%
Cleveland BrownsBrownsAFC N3–27.310%3%<1%<1%
New Orleans SaintsSaintsNFC S1–46.010%9%<1%<1%
Washington CommandersCommandersNFC E1–3–16.15%4%<1%<1%
New York JetsJetsAFC E2–36.24%<1%<1%<1%
Los Angeles ChargersChargersAFC W0–54.91%<1%0%<1%
Arizona CardinalsCardinalsNFC W1–44.0<1%0%0%0%
Tennessee TitansTitansAFC S0–53.3<1%<1%0%0%
Miami DolphinsDolphinsAFC E0–52.7<1%0%0%0%

100,000 simulated seasons, ratings frozen entering week 6, standings and every tiebreaker input as they stand. The simulation prices every game with the Team Elo alone — the Factor model does not enter the playoff odds. Seeding uses the NFL's cascade — head-to-head, division and conference records, common games, strength of victory and schedule. “Title” plays the whole bracket, wild card through a neutral-site Super Bowl, with the divisional round reseeded; that is why a 1 seed wins it about five times as often as a 7 seed.