SCHEDULE EXPERIMENTWeeks 1–6 frozen (13 results assumed from the line). Optimizing Weeks 7–18.

2026 · Entering Week 7

SCHEDULE MASTER

What if the rest of the schedule were built around the playoff race?

Objective weights

Stakes3.00

Fairness0.30

Meeting caps · all season

Fairness mode Rivalry · Same conference only Off

CHOOSE A TRADEOFF

Three precomputed schedules per cap setting. Each keeps every team’s home, away and bye weeks. Meeting caps count the whole season, including the frozen weeks.

158 / 179matchups changed

+3.31 ptsweighted objective · 0–100

0constraint violations

Competitiveness

+7.72 pts

How evenly matched the games are.

NFL schedule71.83

Optimized79.55

Stakes

+4.38 pts

Expected movement in the championship race.

NFL schedule29.92

Optimized34.30

Fairness

-7.40 pts

Similar schedule difficulty for teams chasing the same playoff places.

NFL schedule87.57

Optimized80.17

COMPARE THE SCHEDULES

Compare a team’s season, an entire week, or one team in one week.

LEAGUE-WIDE RESULT · COMPLETE OPTIMIZED SCHEDULE

These results compare the original NFL schedule with the complete optimized schedule. Team and week filters below do not change them.

League fairness

Full-season rivalry fairness · 0–10087.57 → 80.17-7.40

All teams, with every optimized switch applied.

Weighted objective

Complete league schedule · 0–10035.16 → 38.47+3.31

League inputs (NFL → optimized): competitiveness 71.83 → 79.55 (weight 0); stakes 29.92 → 34.30 (weight 3); fairness weighted at 0.3.

Compare teamWeek

League · Week 7

14 games per schedule · 4 linked switch groups

Competitiveness

Average per game · 0–10075.40 → 79.32+3.92

Total: 1055.57 → 1110.51
Change: +54.93 score-points

Stakes

Average per game · reference index28.31 → 32.79+4.48

Total: 396.32 → 459.05
Change: +62.74 score-points

Game averages and totals count each matchup once. These metrics compare the original and complete optimized schedules, restricted to the games selected above.

SWITCH-BY-SWITCH CHANGES

Changes only

Each row compares NFL → optimized for the selected week. Expand a row to inspect all affected games and the isolated league effect of that switch group. “Changes only” filters the breakdown; totals always include every game in the selection.

Week / switch	Matchups	Competitiveness average · Δ	Stakes average · Δ
Week 7	5 games ARI · BAL · CHI · CIN · DEN · LA · LV · MIA · NE · NYJ	69.04 → 80.91+11.87	31.16 → 36.34+5.18
Week 7	3 games ATL · CLE · IND · MIN · SF · TEN	74.35 → 74.10-0.25	23.16 → 37.98+14.81
Week 7	2 games DET · GB · KC · SEA	80.06 → 77.19-2.87	61.13 → 56.56-4.56
Week 7	3 games DAL · HOU · NO · NYG · PHI · PIT	80.68 → 81.37+0.69	12.82 → 13.32+0.51
Week 7	1 game unchanged TB @ CAR	85.16 → 85.160.00	10.31 → 10.310.00

SCHEDULE BY TEAM

NFL → optimized, per team. Opponent Elo is the average over all 17 games including frozen Weeks 1–6 (higher = harder). Stakes is the average index per game over that team’s own games.

Sort by

JAXAFC South

Opp Elo1494 → 1524+30

Stakes45.8 → 78.7+32.9

BUFAFC East

Opp Elo1501 → 1527+26

Stakes57.7 → 82.6+24.9

LANFC West

Opp Elo1506 → 1530+24

Stakes67.3 → 89.8+22.5

BALAFC North

Opp Elo1491 → 1516+25

Stakes42.4 → 64.3+21.9

SEANFC West

Opp Elo1507 → 1528+22

Stakes72.4 → 93.0+20.6

SFNFC West

Opp Elo1497 → 1517+20

Stakes57.1 → 77.5+20.4

KCAFC West

Opp Elo1502 → 1521+20

Stakes56.4 → 74.1+17.6

NEAFC East

Opp Elo1502 → 1523+21

Stakes47.1 → 61.3+14.2

MINNFC North

Opp Elo1499 → 1510+11

Stakes48.8 → 58.8+10.0

DETNFC North

Opp Elo1486 → 1508+22

Stakes35.9 → 45.4+9.5

GBNFC North

Opp Elo1507 → 1511+5

Stakes32.5 → 39.9+7.5

CINAFC North

Opp Elo1484 → 1502+17

Stakes25.9 → 33.3+7.4

CHINFC North

Opp Elo1507 → 1512+4

Stakes42.8 → 47.2+4.4

HOUAFC South

Opp Elo1494 → 1496+2

Stakes15.1 → 18.6+3.5

INDAFC South

Opp Elo1494 → 1497+3

Stakes17.8 → 20.5+2.7

DENAFC West

Opp Elo1506 → 1513+6

Stakes37.6 → 40.3+2.7

PITAFC North

Opp Elo1499 → 1503+4

Stakes24.1 → 25.6+1.4

CLEAFC North

Opp Elo1493 → 1492-2

Stakes7.3 → 8.4+1.1

NONFC South

Opp Elo1490 → 1485-4

Stakes8.3 → 6.9-1.4

NYGNFC East

Opp Elo1496 → 1486-10

Stakes20.0 → 16.6-3.4

LVAFC West

Opp Elo1499 → 1497-2

Stakes18.8 → 15.0-3.8

CARNFC South

Opp Elo1501 → 1492-10

Stakes22.2 → 17.9-4.3

ATLNFC South

Opp Elo1500 → 1491-9

Stakes18.1 → 13.4-4.7

PHINFC East

Opp Elo1499 → 1488-11

Stakes21.3 → 16.1-5.2

NYJAFC East

Opp Elo1494 → 1490-4

Stakes14.4 → 8.2-6.2

TBNFC South

Opp Elo1499 → 1484-15

Stakes13.7 → 7.2-6.5

TENAFC South

Opp Elo1501 → 1462-39

Stakes8.4 → 1.4-7.1

LACAFC West

Opp Elo1512 → 1484-28

Stakes16.7 → 9.1-7.6

WASNFC East

Opp Elo1506 → 1481-25

Stakes13.7 → 5.7-8.0

DALNFC East

Opp Elo1499 → 1486-14

Stakes24.2 → 16.2-8.0

ARINFC West

Opp Elo1518 → 1478-40

Stakes11.1 → 1.8-9.3

MIAAFC East

Opp Elo1519 → 1468-51

Stakes10.6 → 0.5-10.1

WEEKS 1–6 RESULTS USED · 80 FINAL / 13 ASSUMED

Unfinished games use the cached betting line as the home scoring margin, including half points. Final games keep their actual result. These margins set the standings entering Week 7 and roll the published Elo ratings forward. No assumed result is added to the live standings.

Source snapshot: 2026-10-16 08:00:17 UTC.

W6 ARI @ LALA by 12.5Assumed from line

W6 BAL @ CLEBAL by 3.5Assumed from line

W6 BUF @ LVBUF by 4.5Assumed from line

W6 CAR @ PHICAR by 3.5Assumed from line

W6 CHI @ ATLCHI by 1.5Assumed from line

W6 DAL @ GBGB by 1.5Assumed from line

W6 HOU @ JAXJAX by 2.5Assumed from line

W6 LAC @ KCKC by 7.5Assumed from line

W6 NO @ NYGNO by 1.5Assumed from line

W6 NYJ @ NENE by 7.5Assumed from line

W6 PIT @ TBPIT by 2.5Assumed from line

W6 SEA @ DENDEN by 3Final result

W6 TEN @ INDIND by 7Assumed from line

W6 WAS @ SFSF by 7.5Assumed from line

W5 BAL @ ATLBAL by 7Final result

W5 BUF @ LABUF by 3Final result

W5 CHI @ GBGB by 24Final result

W5 CIN @ MIACIN by 7Final result

W5 CLE @ NYJNYJ by 5Final result

W5 DEN @ LACDEN by 6Final result

W5 DET @ ARIDET by 24Final result

W5 HOU @ TENHOU by 23Final result

W5 IND @ PITPIT by 12Final result

W5 LV @ NENE by 28Final result

W5 MIN @ NOMIN by 10Final result

W5 NYG @ WASTieFinal result

W5 PHI @ JAXJAX by 2Final result

W5 SF @ SEASF by 3Final result

W5 TB @ DALTB by 8Final result

W4 ARI @ NYGNYG by 12Final result

W4 ATL @ NOATL by 21Final result

W4 DAL @ HOUDAL by 4Final result

W4 DEN @ SFSF by 10Final result

W4 DET @ CARCAR by 6Final result

W4 GB @ TBGB by 3Final result

W4 IND @ WASIND by 17Final result

W4 JAX @ CINJAX by 5Final result

W4 KC @ LVKC by 3Final result

W4 LA @ PHILA by 4Final result

W4 LAC @ SEASEA by 7Final result

W4 MIA @ MINMIN by 5Final result

W4 NE @ BUFNE by 3Final result

W4 NYJ @ CHICHI by 11Final result

W4 PIT @ CLECLE by 3Final result

W4 TEN @ BALBAL by 6Final result

W3 ARI @ SFSF by 6Final result

W3 ATL @ GBATL by 21Final result

W3 BAL @ DALBAL by 3Final result

W3 CAR @ CLECLE by 3Final result

W3 CIN @ PITPIT by 3Final result

W3 HOU @ INDIND by 2Final result

W3 KC @ MIAKC by 14Final result

W3 LA @ DENDEN by 4Final result

W3 LAC @ BUFBUF by 8Final result

W3 LV @ NOLV by 8Final result

W3 MIN @ TBMIN by 7Final result

W3 NE @ JAXJAX by 29Final result

W3 NYJ @ DETDET by 7Final result

W3 PHI @ CHICHI by 20Final result

W3 SEA @ WASWAS by 2Final result

W3 TEN @ NYGNYG by 5Final result

W2 CAR @ ATLCAR by 31Final result

W2 CIN @ HOUCIN by 14Final result

W2 CLE @ TBCLE by 4Final result

W2 DET @ BUFBUF by 10Final result

W2 GB @ NYJGB by 3Final result

W2 IND @ KCKC by 3Final result

W2 JAX @ DENDEN by 7Final result

W2 LV @ LACLV by 12Final result

W2 MIA @ SFSF by 22Final result

W2 MIN @ CHIMIN by 6Final result

W2 NO @ BALNO by 7Final result

W2 NYG @ LALA by 22Final result

W2 PHI @ TENPHI by 4Final result

W2 PIT @ NENE by 17Final result

W2 SEA @ ARISEA by 24Final result

W2 WAS @ DALDAL by 17Final result

W1 ARI @ LACARI by 12Final result

W1 ATL @ PITPIT by 7Final result

W1 BAL @ INDBAL by 18Final result

W1 BUF @ HOUBUF by 5Final result

W1 CHI @ CARCHI by 22Final result

W1 CLE @ JAXJAX by 24Final result

W1 DAL @ NYGNYG by 8Final result

W1 DEN @ KCKC by 21Final result

W1 GB @ MINMIN by 17Final result

W1 MIA @ LVLV by 14Final result

W1 NE @ SEASEA by 3Final result

W1 NO @ DETDET by 1Final result

W1 NYJ @ TENNYJ by 13Final result

W1 SF @ LASF by 20Final result

W1 TB @ CINCIN by 6Final result

W1 WAS @ PHIPHI by 2Final result

HOW THIS WORKS

The engine swaps visitors between home slots within each week, searching for a better combination of competitiveness, championship stakes and fairness. Meeting caps count the whole season, including the frozen weeks: “NFL caps” is the real structure (division rivals twice, everyone else at most once), so a pair that has already met cannot meet again; “Default caps” allows one extra meeting of each kind.

All comparisons use the same 60,000-simulation reference playoff race. Scores are shown on a 0–100 scale; the weighted objective uses the selected weights. Your default uses two search passes of 40,000 moves, rebuilding the playoff reference between passes. The other tradeoffs use one pass. All displayed scores use the original reference for a consistent comparison.

Rivalry fairness gives more weight to schedule differences between teams competing for the same playoff places. Ratings stay frozen at the partition week. This is a hypothetical matchup experiment; travel, kickoff times, broadcast commitments and neutral-site logistics are outside the model. Search results are candidates, with no guarantee of a global optimum. Simulation estimates carry sampling noise.