Indianapolis Colts
Each game moves the rating by K × (result − expectation), where the result is scaled by margin. Start at the season seed, add every line, and you land on today's rating — exactly. Win% is the model's calibrated probability before kickoff.
Team Elo is the board's rating, built from margins. Offense and defense are the two Factor Elos — a second model that rates points per possession — and the quarterback is a component inside offense (the ↳). They are shown as the model saw them entering week 6.
Offense and defense are rated in points per possession by a second model. Cast plus the quarterback's marginal effect plus the situational term equals offense, exactly. The situation line is non-zero only when a team is starting someone other than its established quarterback — that is a property of the team's phase, not the player, so it is kept outside his rating.
Team Elo rank after each week. Bye weeks hold the previous rank.