OPEN COUNT — NHL · 2026-27

TOR · Toronto Maple Leafs

3-3-2 · 8 pts · Atlantic · Eastern
WOWY — TOR pairs →
Outlook · as of Fri, Oct 16
88proj pts75–102
27%playoffs
3%division
1%Stanley Cup
Lineup and model inputs → Full standings → This week's games →
The team count

Goals above replacement (GAR) by game state, each row the skaters plus any team term that state carries. The rows add to the total exactly. A traded skater counts here only for his games with this club.

Even strengthskater value at 5v5 (the model's frozen even-strength scope), itemized below — the players carry this state whole+2.216th
Power playskater value only this season — the team power-play estimate is fitted on complete seasons and is added once the season is over+0.36th
Penalty killone team term — individual PK credit did not repeat, so the club carries it, held to its measured reliability+0.13rd
Penaltiesskater value from minors drawn less minors taken — the club's opportunity, carried whole by its players+0.416th
Measured team value+3.014th

How this count is built

The skaters
Auston Matthews
+0.6William Nylander
+0.4Kirill Marchenko
+0.2Jack Roslovic
+0.2John Tavares
+0.2Darren Raddysh
+0.2Colton Sissons
+0.2Easton Cowan
+0.2Nick Paul
+0.1Jake McCabe
+0.1Morgan Rielly
+0.1Troy Stecher
+0.1Gavin McKenna
+0.1Chris Tanev
+0.1

even strength power play penalties (net)· negative components sit left of the zero line

Measured skater value+2.9 goals
Last 5 gamespre-game
Thu, Oct 15vs BUFOTL4–5 OT49%
Tue, Oct 13@ UTAL4–543%
Sat, Oct 10@ COLW6–340%
Thu, Oct 8@ VGKOTL3–4 SO41%
Tue, Oct 6vs NSHW5–4 OT52%
Next 5 gameswin chance
Sat, Oct 17vs NYI53%
Mon, Oct 19vs SJS54%
Tue, Oct 20@ CBJ42%
Thu, Oct 22vs NYR48%
Sat, Oct 24@ EDM41%