OPEN COUNT — NHL · 2026-27

TBL · Tampa Bay Lightning

5-2-0 · 10 pts · Atlantic · Eastern
Outlook · as of Fri, Oct 16
103proj pts90–117
78%playoffs
31%division
7%Stanley Cup
Lineup and model inputs → Full standings → This week's games →
The team count

Goals above replacement (GAR) by game state, each row the skaters plus any team term that state carries. The rows add to the total exactly. A traded skater counts here only for his games with this club.

Even strengthskater value at 5v5 (the model's frozen even-strength scope), itemized below — the players carry this state whole+2.89th
Power playskater value only this season — the team power-play estimate is fitted on complete seasons and is added once the season is over+0.215th
Penalty killone team term — individual PK credit did not repeat, so the club carries it, held to its measured reliability−0.018th
Penaltiesskater value from minors drawn less minors taken — the club's opportunity, carried whole by its players+0.56th
Measured team value+3.47th

How this count is built

The skaters
Brandon Hagel
+0.6
Nikita Kucherov
+0.5
Jake Guentzel
+0.3
John Carlson
+0.2
Brayden Point
+0.2
Ilya Mikheyev
+0.2
Anthony Cirelli
+0.2
Victor Hedman
+0.1
Ryan McDonagh
+0.1
Pontus Holmberg
+0.1
J.J. Moser
+0.1
Gage Goncalves
+0.1
Erik Cernak
+0.1
Max Crozier
+0.1

even strength power play penalties (net)· negative components sit left of the zero line

Measured skater value+3.4 goals
Last 5 gamespre-game
Thu, Oct 15vs SEAW4–3 OT60%
Tue, Oct 13@ NYRL1–454%
Sat, Oct 10@ NYIW5–356%
Thu, Oct 8vs MINW3–256%
Mon, Oct 5vs PHIW4–158%
Next 5 gameswin chance
Sat, Oct 17vs VAN66%
Tue, Oct 20@ VGK48%
Fri, Oct 23@ COL47%
Sat, Oct 24@ UTA48%
Thu, Oct 29vs WPG61%