THE 2026 SEASON

Team	P(field) ↓	P(bye)	P(auto)	P(CCG)	E[seed]
1Ohio StateBig Ten	81%	56%	35%	54%	3.6
4OregonBig Ten	70%	39%	25%	47%	4.6
6Texas TechBig 12	67%	19%	53%	76%	6.7
3IndianaBig Ten	67%	36%	23%	43%	4.7
2Notre DameFBS Ind	65%	25%	0%	0%	5.7
5GeorgiaSEC	65%	35%	29%	48%	4.8
7MiamiACC	61%	18%	48%	69%	6.8
8TexasSEC	53%	26%	17%	31%	5.0
10Texas A&MSEC	37%	14%	9%	19%	5.9
11OklahomaSEC	37%	14%	9%	19%	5.7
9Ole MissSEC	36%	14%	10%	20%	5.7
13USCBig Ten	33%	12%	5%	13%	5.9
12AlabamaSEC	32%	11%	9%	18%	6.0
16UtahBig 12	25%	6%	12%	31%	7.3
18BYUBig 12	24%	6%	12%	30%	7.2
15MichiganBig Ten	24%	7%	3%	8%	6.4
14LSUSEC	23%	7%	5%	12%	6.3
17Penn StateBig Ten	21%	5%	3%	14%	6.8
19WashingtonBig Ten	19%	5%	2%	7%	6.6
23SMUACC	19%	2%	11%	32%	8.2
20TennesseeSEC	18%	5%	4%	10%	6.6
21IowaBig Ten	16%	4%	2%	7%	6.9
35Boise StatePac-12	16%	1%	14%	57%	10.1
25ClemsonACC	14%	2%	7%	17%	7.7
22MissouriSEC	14%	3%	2%	6%	6.7
26LouisvilleACC	13%	2%	8%	23%	8.1
24VanderbiltSEC	13%	3%	2%	6%	6.9
27ArizonaBig 12	13%	3%	5%	13%	7.3
41James MadisonSun Belt	11%	<1%	10%	48%	10.8
31Kansas StateBig 12	10%	2%	4%	13%	7.9
28FloridaSEC	9%	2%	2%	4%	7.0
34VirginiaACC	8%	1%	5%	16%	8.5
46San Diego StatePac-12	8%	<1%	7%	40%	10.2
29AuburnSEC	8%	2%	1%	3%	6.9
54South FloridaAmer	8%	<1%	7%	30%	10.7
32PittsburghACC	8%	1%	4%	13%	8.2
33TCUBig 12	7%	1%	3%	9%	7.6
30South CarolinaSEC	7%	2%	1%	3%	7.0
36HoustonBig 12	7%	1%	2%	9%	8.0
60NavyAmer	6%	<1%	6%	33%	10.3
66UNLVMWC	6%	<1%	5%	45%	10.7
61TulaneAmer	6%	<1%	5%	28%	10.4
58Texas StatePac-12	5%	<1%	4%	29%	10.2
38Arizona StateBig 12	5%	1%	2%	6%	7.5
57Washington StatePac-12	5%	<1%	4%	28%	10.3
72New MexicoMWC	5%	<1%	4%	42%	10.8
67UTSAAmer	5%	<1%	4%	26%	10.7
42NC StateACC	4%	<1%	3%	10%	8.9
64Fresno StatePac-12	4%	<1%	4%	24%	10.3
79North Dakota StateMWC	4%	<1%	4%	39%	11.0

5,000 simulated seasons. Each team is rated on a blend of its preseason projection and last season's finish. Real results take over from week 1.