OPEN COUNT — NHL · 2026-27

NJD · New Jersey Devils

4-3-0 · 8 pts · Metropolitan · Eastern

WOWY — NJD pairs →

Outlook · as of Fri, Oct 16

97proj pts83–111

58%playoffs

13%division

4%Stanley Cup

Lineup and model inputs → Full standings → This week's games →

The team count

Goals above replacement (GAR) by game state, each row the skaters plus any team term that state carries. The rows add to the total exactly. A traded skater counts here only for his games with this club.

Even strengthskater value at 5v5 (the model's frozen even-strength scope), itemized below — the players carry this state whole+3.05th

Power playskater value only this season — the team power-play estimate is fitted on complete seasons and is added once the season is over+0.216th

Penalty killone team term — individual PK credit did not repeat, so the club carries it, held to its measured reliability−0.024th

Penaltiesskater value from minors drawn less minors taken — the club's opportunity, carried whole by its players+0.57th

Measured team value+3.65th

How this count is built

The skaters

+0.2 Luke Evangelista

even strength power play penalties (net)· negative components sit left of the zero line

Measured skater value+3.7 goals

Last 5 gamespre-game

Thu, Oct 15vs NYRW7–154%

Tue, Oct 13@ DETW5–4 OT47%

Mon, Oct 12vs OTTL1–454%

Sat, Oct 10vs VANW4–165%

Tue, Oct 6vs UTAL3–556%

Next 5 gameswin chance

Sat, Oct 17@ WSH47%

Tue, Oct 20vs COL53%

Thu, Oct 22vs ANA56%

Sat, Oct 24vs LAK55%

Tue, Oct 27@ DAL48%

OPEN COUNT — NHL · 2026-27 PROJECTION

NJD · New Jersey Devils

After 7 games · 4-3-0, 8 pts · as of Fri, Oct 16 · Metropolitan

Standings →

97proj pts83–111

58%playoffs

13%division

4%Stanley Cup

53%win vs avg club

+28.56thproj GAR, forwards

+7.416thproj GAR, defense

What the game model sees

Expected regulation goals a game against a league-average opponent (home and away averaged), and the inputs that produce them.

Goals for a game2.907th2.13 at 5v5 + 0.61 on the power play + 0.16 other (4v4, 3v3, 5v3) · league average 2.80

Goals against a game2.7410th1.98 at 5v5 + 0.60 on the penalty kill + 0.16 other · league average 2.80

Inputs, in goals a game against the league-average club:

5v5 offense (skaters)+0.058th

5v5 defense (skaters)+0.0110th

Power play (skaters)+0.0210th

Penalty kill (team rating)−0.0120th

Power-play time a game4.3 min27thleague average 4.7 min

Last 5 gamespre-game

Thu, Oct 15vs NYRW7–154%

Tue, Oct 13@ DETW5–4 OT47%

Mon, Oct 12vs OTTL1–454%

Sat, Oct 10vs VANW4–165%

Tue, Oct 6vs UTAL3–556%

Next 5 gameswin chance

Sat, Oct 17@ WSH47%

Tue, Oct 20vs COL53%

Thu, Oct 22vs ANA56%

Sat, Oct 24vs LAK55%

Tue, Oct 27@ DAL48%

The expected lineup

Everyone who has dressed in the club's last ten games, weighted by how often he played and his usual share of the ice time. Values are goals above replacement per 60 minutes; “Per game” is that value at these minutes. The penalty kill enters as a team rating — individual kill value did not repeat season to season.

Forwards

Skater	Value	Per game	Off/60	Def/60	PP/60	5v5 min	PP min	PK min
Jack Hughes	Live	+0.055	+0.16	+0.01	+0.21	15.6	3.4	0.3
Jesper Bratt	Live	+0.046	+0.18	−0.00	+0.14	13.0	3.3	0.5
Nico Hischier	Live	+0.035	+0.12	+0.01	+0.16	12.0	3.4	2.1
Timo Meier	Live	+0.036	+0.13	+0.01	+0.20	13.6	1.3	0.3
Arseny Gritsyuk	Live	+0.042	+0.17	+0.01	+0.07	13.4	1.2	0.4
Evan Rodrigues	Live	+0.018	+0.08	+0.01	+0.02	12.0	1.9	1.8
Anthony Mantha	Live	+0.031	+0.15	−0.00	+0.07	11.8	1.2	—
Dawson Mercer	Live	+0.016	+0.07	+0.01	+0.06	12.0	0.3	2.2
Luke Evangelista	Live	+0.028	+0.16	+0.01	+0.02	9.1	2.4	—
Amadeus Lombardi	Live	+0.007	+0.06	−0.00	−0.39	10.1	0.4	0.1
Cody Glass	Live	+0.020	+0.11	+0.02	−0.02	9.6	0.3	2.0
Jesper Boqvist	Live	+0.004	+0.03	+0.00	−0.08	7.7	0.2	0.1
Stefan Noesen	Live	+0.003	+0.04	−0.01	+0.02	5.0	0.1	—

Defense

Skater	Value	Per game	Off/60	Def/60	PP/60	5v5 min	PP min	PK min
Luke Hughes	Live	+0.031	+0.06	+0.02	+0.14	18.1	3.6	1.2
Brett Pesce	Live	+0.012	+0.02	+0.02	−0.04	18.2	0.1	2.5
Dougie Hamilton	Live	+0.035	+0.12	+0.01	+0.02	16.6	1.3	2.3
Jonas Siegenthaler	Live	−0.001	−0.01	+0.01	—	16.5	—	2.2
Declan Chisholm	Live	+0.009	+0.03	+0.01	−0.05	14.1	0.3	0.2
Brenden Dillon	Live	−0.002	−0.02	+0.01	—	9.3	—	1.4
Johnathan Kovacevic	Live	+0.003	+0.02	+0.02	—	4.1	—	0.1

Value sources: Live this season's play blended with the projection · Proj last season through the projection model · Carried missed last season, earlier projection discounted · Repl no history.